WASHINGTON — A bit greater than a yr in the past, the Meet the Press group recognized 5 counties we needed to observe as a part of an effort we referred to as County to County. The objective used to be to make use of the ones counties to discover higher developments within the citizens to get a really feel for a way other types of citizens have been reacting all the way through the 2020 marketing campaign.
With the votes in, the Information Obtain this week digs into the ones 5 counties and what they taught us in regards to the election. They grew to become out to be very good barometers for the spaces we needed to grasp.
We’ll pass alphabetically and get started with Beaver County in Pennsylvania, a blue-collar suburb of Pittsburgh that strongly supported President Trump in 2016. We went there to determine if the ones citizens would stand through the president on this cycle. Our considering getting into used to be that Beaver would most likely strengthen the president, however he would possibly see little erosion on this an important a part of his base in Pennsylvania and in different Nice Lake states.
It seems this is in large part what took place. Trump nonetheless gained Beaver through a big margin, greater than 17 issues, however that used to be some extent not up to he gained the county through in 2016. And that trend seemed around the Higher Midwest, with Trump profitable once more in key blue-collar suburbs similar to Macomb County in Michigan and Berks in Pennsylvania, however through not up to 4 years in the past — losses that might up being an important in shut states.
In Kent County, Michigan, the previous house of Gerald Ford, we needed to determine if a long-time house of wealthier, status quo Republicans would stand through the president in 2020. Interviews and ballot knowledge urged they have been the types of Republicans who have been maximum uncomfortable with him.
And certainly, Kent flipped and voted for Joe Biden this yr, after backing Trump in 2016. The county swung through greater than nine issues towards the Democrat. And we noticed an identical swings in share, if no longer outright flips, in an identical counties across the nation, together with Douglas in Colorado and Waukesha in Wisconsin.
In Maricopa County, Arizona, we needed to peer how a large rising and diversifying suburban house would reply to Trump after the suburban vote grew to become particularly blue in 2018. Would the ones attitudes elevate on in 2020 in a spot such because the Phoenix metro house with its rising Hispanic inhabitants?
Maricopa, which Trump had gained narrowly in 2016 through about three issues, additionally flipped to Biden, with the Democrat profitable it through a bit of greater than 2 issues. The overall margin swing used to be a bit of greater than 5 issues and the win in Maricopa necessarily propelled Biden to win the state of Arizona. And it’s price noting that swings within the large diversifying suburban house round Atlanta used to be instrumental to hanging Georgia in Biden’s column as neatly.
The County-to-County effort went to Miami-Dade in Florida for 2 attached causes. The Florida voter panorama is other than different states and the “Hispanic vote” that analysts ceaselessly describe as a unmarried entity is in truth an especially sophisticated mosaic of folks and pursuits. Particularly, we idea the Cuban and Venezuelan citizens within the house could be extra delicate to the phrase “socialism.”
That idea proved to be correct. Of the 5 counties in our team Miami-Dade used to be the one one the place Trump progressed on his 2016 margin and through a large 22 share issues. Remarkably, the 2020 effects display that Biden necessarily were given the similar collection of votes out of the county as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, however Trump were given an extra 200,000 votes out of Miami-Dade, a county this is nearly 70 p.c Hispanic.
And County to County went to Milwaukee County in Wisconsin to peer if Democrats may just stir up and produce out their an important base of African-American citizens. A decline within the collection of votes from Milwaukee used to be a large explanation why Trump gained Wisconsin in 2016.
And Biden did enhance the Democrats’ margin and their turnout in Milwaukee this yr. No longer handiest did he do about 3 share issues higher than Hillary Clinton within the county, he netted kind of 20,000 extra votes. It wasn’t a stellar efficiency for Biden within the county — Dane County, house of the College of Wisconsin grew to become out much more votes — however it used to be excellent sufficient.
Once more, that tale used to be repeated in different large towns within the higher Midwest, no longer large turnout or margin, however higher than 2016 and, total, sufficient to get the ball around the objective line for Biden.
Those 5 counties, and the 5 tales round them, grew to become out to be an important components of the 2020 marketing campaign. And even if the election is over, we gained’t be leaving behind the County-to-County solution to political protection. Operating with the knowledge and county sorts of the American Communities Venture at George Washington College, the Meet The Press group plans to stay discovering puts that assist give an explanation for the country’s sophisticated political panorama.